By: Stefan Penkov
What a week! Instead of waiting the markets to find their way up, the Federal Reserve decided to get everybody by a surprised .50 point decrease of the interest rate. The decrease was expected but not by that much. It caused in turn the frenzy we witnessed last week. Well, this is the last confirmation of what I have been talking over the last couple of months-we still have an excellent outlook for a very good run of the markets and excellent profits to make over the next 12-15 months. On the other hand, the half point decrease and another potential half cut at the end of October are a very, very bad signal for all of us. It means that the Fed gave up on fighting the inflation. They preferred to postpone the collapse of the American economy. I know that I am using a very strong adjective here but in 2009-2010 we will be witnessing the beginning of something much bigger than a simple recession. I see you saying: Come on Stefan, do not be so pessimistic while everybody is having fun out there! I totally agree with you as we will have a lot of time to cry over our past mistakes. For now let's join the party and take advantage of the great opportunities!
I should definitely start with the resources. New bull market high for Gold, new all time high for Crude Oil and a final decisive break for Silver. The precious metals and the Oil tell us that the inflation is not only continuing to develop but it is also starting to accelerate. As you all know, the resource sector is my favorite sector to invest in the next decade. I strongly recommend you to see an advisor or an investment professional and to invest in this sector if you have not done it yet. HUI and XAU reached all time highs as well and with the obvious broad market advance we are reassured that these indexes will have great performances in the next months. Their new highs indicate also that Gold will finally achieve its all time new high very soon.
One of the reasons for the increases in the resource sector is the beginning of the end of the US dollar. The only question we can have now is how low it can fall. The projections for now show at least a 25% decrease from here but I personally believe that it will go lower. The other currencies are in a bull market which is here to stay. As I previously said on many occasions, the Canadian dollar is the leader among them. This week it achieved the parity with the US dollar and is continuing to appreciate, boosted by the Oil and the strength of the Canadian economy. My projection for now sees it going up to 1.25US and even higher. This won't be achieved overnight but will come over the next 2-3 years. The Euro is gaining strength as well and is projected to first reach 1.51US before climbing to 1.83US in the upcoming years. The British pound looks less enthusiastic but it has been leading the parade over the last several months and needs some consolidation before continuing its way up. There is a very good outlook for the Australian which is targeting as well the parity with the US dollar. For now we can expect a reach of the .91 mark.
The stock markets are not at new highs yet but you won't have to wait a lot to see some of them there. I expect to see the Canadian and the Australian stock markets performing better that all the other developed countries.
As for the interest rates, the picture is crystal clear. We will see them decreasing another couple of times before resuming there long term run up. For the next year we will be in a correction mode but the uptrend will remain intact.
This in turn is good news for the bonds which go on the opposite direction of the interest rates.
As I stated in one of my July publications, the fall will be an exciting period to invest. Let's take advantage of it!
Good investing and best regards,
Stefan Penkov
www.investinghelptoday.com
